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Some in the investment arena have been drawing analogies to the s for several years now, of course. But drawing analogies is more of an art than a science, especially when you are picking and choosing from a decade like the s. Contrary to the popular imagination, which regards that decade as one unremitting horror show, the s actually contained one of U.

Is there any rally during the s that comes close to being analogous?

Some have suggested the one that began in Novemberwhich basically was little more than a dead-cat bounce following the stock market crash in September and October of that year. Another rally that is perhaps more comparable is the one that began in July It lasted nearly five years, and during it the Dow more than quadrupled. And, if this is the script the market is indeed playing out, a huge rally is in store over the next couple of years.

Is this analogy-drawing little more than shameless data mining? I engage in it for this column simply to counter those who, equally shamelessly, try drawing their own analogies to the s in order to reach bearish conclusions. From a contrarian perspective, however, the analogies to that decade that the bears love to draw do have significance.

It indicates just how robust is the wall of worry that advisers choose to draw an analogy to the very worst of the s — when they just as easily could do so in another way and reach a quite bullish conclusion.

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