Global stock market factbook 2010
To find out more about E-IR essay awards, click here. Domestic inadequacies and a loss of international prestige has left a growing number of scholars, analysts, and other experts worried about the imminent decline of the United States of America U. This coincides with the assumptions of Hegemonic Stability Theory HSTwhich presupposes the cyclical transition of world leadership.
Said differently, the reigning world leader could soon be replaced by a new power. Over the last few decades military thinkers, journalists, policymakers, and scholars alike, have been watching with a wary eye, the rapid rise of China. Given the apparent decline of the U. This is the question being asked by a small, but growing, chorus of futurists; and their arguments are rather persuasive, too. Moreover, the anticipated Chinese hegemony lacks theoretical support; and finally, it simply is not feasible in practical terms.
Consequently, this paper will first examine U. At present, the U. Its gross domestic product at purchasing power parity GDP-PPP ranks the highest in the world, [2] while the GDP-PPP of China [3]the U. After all, the U. Air Force maintains unquestioned superiority over air and space. Navy is the dominant force in every ocean, where it has established safe shipping lanes, and served as a key instrument in U.
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A Forecast for the 21st Centuryasserts that maritime movement can be guaranteed or denied by the U. Given these realities, it is no wonder that the U. However, the emergence of economic giants has resulted in the creation of new power centers all over the world.
This threatens to alter the 21 st century balance of power in ways that may pose significant challenges to U. Of course, this is significant for other reasons as well: Take as an example, the Thyssen Krupp steel mill of Dortmund, Germany. In the early s, a privately-held Chinese company, Shagang, purchased the entire steel mill, paying its price in scrap.
Shagang then had the entire mill disassembled, shipped 5, miles, and then reassembled near the Yangtze River, in Jinfeng, China in less than a year. Its need for natural resources has been felt from Germany to Indonesia and Latin America and from the Middle East to Australia. The Chinese need natural gas from Russia, iron ore from Brazil and Australia, oil from the Middle East, and soybeans from the U.
In fact, China currently only ranks second to the U. Before an incumbent hegemon falls from its leadership position, it typically faces a period known as hegemonic decline. After about seventy to one hundred years, it seems that decline is almost natural. Historically, examples of hegemonic decline come in two prime sectors: Special Forces covertly operating abroad, training missions, and technical support missions, the U. Citing the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, operations in South Korea, a presence in Japan and Germany, a campaign in Libya, a commitment to protect Taiwan, as well as maintaining the security of the nation, it would be easy to suggest that the U.
One fine historical example of hegemonic decline can be seen at the end of Dutch hegemony, when the Netherlands simply could not maintain its military after the rapid technological advances caused by the Thirty Years War Furthermore, the hegemon usually has to dedicate inordinate amounts of capital to its military adventurism.
The Netherlands in this case, did not have the capital to keep up with British innovation, allowing for the English to begin their first leadership reign.
The tendency to direct resources away from economic development and towards military spendthrift can be very dangerous by making it more challenging for a state to weather major depressions and other economic downswings.
China, quite simply, is using its burgeoning wealth to buy and build a modern military. This was well after China began expanding the size of its submarine fleet, but this spending could bring Andrew F. Krepinevich, the author of 7 Deadly Scenarios: After doing this, forecasts Mosher, the Chinese military—even using its new submarines to do so—will try to neutralize U. Moreover, the PLAN is directing its area-denial capabilities at the U. After all, Guam is home to Andersen Air Force Base, which houses more weaponry than any other base in the Pacific, and more fuel than any in the world.
Consider that declinists typically insist that the rise of China portends the end of the U. By the s, China became the self-declared leader and advocate of the Third World. For instance, the PRC began providing aid to African nation-states, which has helped build railways, ports, dams, schools, and infrastructure.
China contributes more to Africa than the World Bank, and it does so without placing Western-style demands for economic or political reform on the recipients of said aid. More specifically, they give the PRC further reason to support these developing states. For example, China has been able to block the U. In one case, China threatened to veto any resolution developed by the international community that attempted to address the violence in Darfur by calling for sanctions against the Sudan.
As a result, the UNSC had to pass a weak resolution. In the case of the Sudan, China built an oil terminal on the Red Sea, which now supplies the China National Petroleum Corporation CNPC with the vital resource. As diplomats and heads of state tried to hammer out an agreement on the global reduction of green house gas GHG emissions, PRC representatives continuously blocked substantive proposals for significant unilateral reductions on the part of the West.
China, which still considers itself a developing country in need of special treatment, may have been blocking these efforts in order to protect itself from future calls for further action on climate change. However, the PRC successfully obtained a non-binding, watered-down proposal. Then, it effectively orchestrated media spin to make it appear as if the West was to blame for the weak agreement, by unleashing the delegation from its puppet state, the Sudan, in an effort to denounce the document, and the West for its role in creating it.
Economic ties with Australia have also yielded diplomatic benefits. After China became the number one importer of Australian uranium, manganese, and iron, the Australian government informed the U. From the s to the s, people believed that the U. However, Tom Bethell, a writer for the conservative leaning National Reviewpoints out that successive editions of the textbook kept pushing the projected intersection of the Soviet and U.
Graphs in each new edition of Economics illustrated that the Soviet Union would overtake the U. Eventually, Samuelson dropped the graph from his textbooks, but this highlights the nature of U. The s were no different. Declinists were awestruck by the impressive rise of Japan, and many worried that Japan could overtake the U.
Meanwhile, Japan grew its exports, while officials actively pursued policies that would limit the number of imports entering the Japanese markets. Additionally, Japan also developed a high national savings rate, relative to the rest of the world, and especially compared to the U. This helped foster a positive balance of payments in the Japanese political economy. Finally, Japan was also responsible for producing half of the new ships being launched all over the world.
Indeed, only the growth of the Soviet Union after was anything like the growth experienced by Japan. However, the island state managed a more efficient, more impressive, and far less painful rate of growth than the Soviets ever did. Accordingly, some in the West wondered if Japan was on the verge of establishing a Pax Japonicaa concept that left many throughout the Pacific Rim, Europe, and the U.
Instead, the threat of Japanese economic dominance was a hollow one. In reality, it was the Japanese banking system, lending money at artificially low levels. So, while companies in the U. Since Japanese citizens had to save their money, they could not generate domestic demand, which in turn necessitated the high export economy the Japanese lived on. Eventually, nonperforming loans required additional loans to keep companies on life support. Inevitably, the Japanese debt structure became too cumbersome, and an economic collapse sent the market plunging in the early s, triggering the Japanese economic malaise.
Resultantly, the effects of the malaise were still lingering at the onset of the Great Recession. Previous declinist assumptions were based on four factors: The breakup of the Soviet Union and the subsequent onset of the Japanese economic malaise, however, demonstrated the virility of the Pax Americanaand ushered in a unipolar era. Unchallenged, the hegemony of the U. InGoldman Sachs released a report, Building Better Global Economic BRICswhich first analyzed the growing importance of Brazil, Russia, India, and China BRIC as an economic bloc.
By the end ofthe BRIC bloc accounted for Goldman Sachs asserts that the economies of BRIC could be larger than the G-6 the U. BRIC is also beginning to realize the importance of its growing economic strength; and it has begun to flex its muscle, too.
Inthe heads of state from the four BRIC nations held their first summit, which ended with a call for a multipolar world order, and a rejection of U.
The conscious effort to alter the international balance of power is especially troubling given that the U. After all, Brazil is a major regional player aspiring to become a great power in global politics. On at least three recent occasions [39]Brazil has defied the State Department in an effort to establish its position as a global power. Then, the two nations entered into a trilateral agreement with Iran, which actually produced a feasible alternative to sanctions.
Iran had initially agreed to swap spent fuel in Turkey in exchange for aid developing nuclear power. Though the two nations got their fingers burnt, both Turkey and Brazil learned what kind of a role they could play in promoting global peace. Brazil was joined by Uruguay and Argentina in a move meant to promote a settlement freeze in the Palestinian territories. As noted above, China artificially determines the value of its currency, giving it an unfair advantage in global trade.
On 7 FebruaryTimothy Geithner, Secretary of the U. Treasury, appealed to Brazilian policymakers on this issue, and walked away believing that the U. Thanks to Chinese demand for Brazilian iron ore, however, the PRC has dislocated the U.
Moreover, Brazil is concerned about the stability of both the dollar and the Yuan. So it was no surprise when a week later, on February 15 thBrazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega said Brazil would not join the U. Federal Reserve for its policy of quantitative easing, claiming that it was contributing to rising commodity prices and global inflation.
From the BRIC bloc to Turkey and South Korea as shall be noted shortlythe rise of the rest is presenting challenges for the U. It is easy to see, therefore, why many modern day declinists seem to feel differently about China and the rise of the rest.
There is something more to it— something different [46] —especially when comparing the rise of other powers with the relative decline of the U. The episode at Copenhagen was just one example of what the future may hold. Another such episode occurred in Decemberwhen President Barack Obama met in Seoul, South Korea, with leaders of the G Working around the G summit, President Obama and South Korean President Lee Myung-bak tried to renegotiate certain aspects of the South Korea-U.
Free Trade Agreement, which was signed in the last months of President George W. They failed, however, to resolve disputes over restrictions on U. They also failed to resolve the disparities in motor vehicle trade between the two countries. Trade barriers currently make it difficult for U. Consider that, of the overKorean-made cars sold in the U. Meanwhile, at the actual G conference, the U. What is more is that the U. Bythe U. At the same time, the U. This was highlighted by the fact that the U.
Fueled by funding from the central government, Chinese scientists are publishing more internationally recognized scientific papers, which are also being cited more often. Both the quantity and quality of Chinese scientific research is improving.
Advocates of the China thesis often overlook the interdependence of the Chinese and American economies. Advocates of the China thesis also tend to overlook a host of systemic problems within the Chinese economy that could exacerbate any major downturn. For instance, export dependence could severely dampen economic growth if demand for Chinese exports is reduced by another economic crisis.
China, on the other hand, is a superpower of production. Some of these measures encouraged foreign firms to export massive amounts of the goods produced within China. As a consequence, China pockets fractions of the profits generated from goods manufactured within the PRC. Take, for example, the Apple IPod, which is assembled and tested in China. The Japanese economy thrived on exports. Not only are they the largest businesses in China, but they are the largest employers, too.
In fact, the China Petrochemical Corporation, or Sinopec, employs more than a million people, and its primary competitor, CNPC, employs 1. SOEs, however, are archaic remnants of Soviet-era-style economic planning. SOEs pay low wages, so they do not generate demand within the domestic market. Without domestic demand, the overproduction of goods and undervalued Yuan make for very cheap exports.
The lower Chinese firms set prices, however, the less profit they generate. While this may seem irrational, the Chinese central government encourages overproduction, because it creates employment. Profitless exports are doing a lot to keep the Chinese economy churning, but the money flowing into the economy moves right back out. What profits are generated are used to stave off bad debts, while subsidies help protect grossly inefficient firms.
Initially, Beijing tried to end its direct subsidies. However, when SOEs realized that they did not have to repay the banks, their loans often transformed into a type of subsidy.
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Now, just like Japanese companies before the onset of the economic malaise, SOEs often receive additional loans to cover previous debts, thus keeping failing enterprises on life support.
The CCP is resistant to reforming the SOEs because doing so will likely cause numerous lay-offs. For instance, in the provincial city of Rugao, the failure of multiple SOEs has left the former boom-city suffering from massive amounts of unemployment. Many of the former SOE employees now drive pedicabs, but they are essentially unemployed, and will remain so.
Neopets stock market bargains real problem for the CCP is that workers march when they lose their jobs. Demonstrations can amass forex 401k of thousands of laid off workers, as armies of unemployed Chinese citizens roam China looking for jobs. When Deng Xiaoping opened China up to international trade, coastal regions grew wealthy while the interior parts of the country remained in poverty.
Income inequality in China is serious. Its economy may even look healthy through the prism of growth. The unemployed, underemployed, and impoverished could rise up if the economy cannot absorb their ranks, generating waves of political instability in the process.
Likewise, China is also seeing the emergence of similar problems within its own stock exchange, and housing markets. The Shanghai bubble burst inbut China is witnessing the growth of another stock bubble. In response to the Great Recession, the central government launched a massive stimulus aimed at developing infrastructure and social welfare.
However, this has left excessive liquidity in the market, which is now fueling a new bubble. Evidence of this bubble can be seen in three places. First, it has led to inflation in the domestic economy. In fact, food and fuel prices are both increasing. At the heart of his gamble is the overheated real estate market, driven by a construction boom meant to stave off the effects of the Great Recession. Economic growth is driving construction, which in turn is driving further economic growth.
Accordingly, prices for land are on the rise. Meanwhile, municipalities throughout the PRC depend on income from land sales, as do some SOEs. Some investors naively believe that the housing boom will continue indefinitely.
However, millions of newly constructed apartments—many of which are affordable only to the rich elite—are sitting empty, so now Beijing is taking measures to slow a runaway housing boom.
In addition to the housing sector, whole skyscrapers are forward fx trader unoccupied. Though some analysts believe there is digital binary options pricing model housing bubble because of the demand generated by rural peasants migrating to the cities, one Historical forex csv Kong based economist said that forex forex managed trading australia prices in cities such as Shanghai and Beijing may be fourteen times greater than the disposable income of most average residents.
Gulick argues that the PRC will try to reinforce its trade relations when the property and stock bubbles eventually burst.
In its decade-long forecast for the s, STRATFOR argues that demographic trends already show that demand for Chinese manufactured goods will decline in the coming years, as the populations of Japan, Intrade stock market, Turkey, Mexico, and India stop growing, and start aging. Since China is still export dependent the wholesale transformation of the way it does business would likely make money through adfly in unrest due to unemployment.
As a result, the PRC favors the status quo, and it has two significant pieces of leverage it best time to trade gold futures use if the U. One such piece of leverage is the U.
Stock Market Crash - Flash Crash May 6, 2010In reality though, the economic interdependence of the U. First of all, the fact that Chinese exports are undermining American manufacturing is building the foundation of anti-China protectionist populism in the U. Secondly, one of two things could happen if the PRC made good on its threat to dump the dollar.
In one case, in selling off a significant portion of its reserves, China threatens to surrender much of its remaining reserves. When free runescape money maker download begins, it tends to start slow. After awhile, it speeds up, but then it ultimately slows again. The bursting of the Japanese bubbles in domestic real estate and stock markets, and the banking crisis, on the other hand, ended any prospects Japan may have had for economic primacy.
So, the idea that China can sustain its growth rate indefinitely contradicts basic economic principles.
All experienced incredible growth. All eventually succumbed to reality. From a faltering banking system to bourgeoning bubbles, however, China especially shares a number of traits with pre-malaise Japan. It is inevitable therefore, that Aftermarket stock tikka t3 will also binary options are a welcome bonus to the economic laws of gravity.
Hegemonic Stability Theory HST [86] and the China Hype. HST has been used to analyze the successive rise of great powers to the role of world leader, or hegemon, which has been taking place since the fifteenth century at least.
The phenomenon of hegemonic stability negates the otherwise anarchic nature of international politics, because hegemons use their power and clout to build regimes and institutions that foster international trade and peace. For example, the decline of Great Britain at the dawn of the twentieth century led to World War I WWI. The absence of a hegemon during the interregnum led to the Great Depression and WWII. This only happened because the U. Will and ability are at the core of hegemonic stability.
Without them, the savior strategy to forex trading review necessary conditions for hegemony to come into existence simply do not exist. Hegemonic stability theorists argue that the instability of the interregnum was caused because Great Britain had the will to remain hegemon after WWI, even though it did not have the ability.
Only after WWII, did global stock market factbook 2010 U. So the first question is: The answer, quite simply, is no. To elaborate, there are three overarching reasons why it appears that the PRC lacks the will to lead the international system. InChina scored way behind the U. Since the days of Mao, China has desired to reclaim all of the territories that have ever been claimed by the Middle Kingdom.
Richard Bernstein and Ross H. Munro sense something sinister here. They argue that even though this slogan continued to be used by PRC and CCP leaders into the era of Xiaoping, the Chinese are really following the guidance of Sun Tzu. Tzu, the legendary author of the famous Art of Wardemands strategic humility from his readers: This has been seen with BRIC, and also at the IMF, where developing rbi forex currency rates are trying to alter the decision making process to eliminate the U.
Alongside Forex market online pokemon trading card game cheat, the PRC prr stock price quotes trades charts also been promoting its multipolar aims at the UNSC by protecting Iran from strong resolutions.
And Beijing has played an instrumental role in the confrontation between North Korea and the U. S along with South Korea, Russia, and Japan. Given its rejection of hegemonism in general, it is highly unlikely that the PRC could possess the will to act as hegemon any time soon.
As if that were not enough, there is one final reason pz day trading ea it appears the PRC lacks the will to become hegemon.
Despite the fact that some think China is just playing coy neopets stock market bargains its ambitions, leaders of the PRC may prefer the mantle of world leadership fall on another power, such as the EU. Despite the fact that China prefers multipolarity and opposes hegemonism, this makes sense. Not only is the breadth and depth of this relationship impressive, but it is an important axis in international affairs as China and the EU make for easier partners than China and the U.
S, especially since the PRC and EU are both losing trust in the U. Ability, on the other hand, is a different matter. Does China have the ability to be hegemon? The answer is not quite as clear, because the prerequisites for ability are more numerous. In order for a state to become hegemon, it has to have a favorable geography that fosters surplus security. It must have, at the very least, a dominant navy.
It must also possess a lead economy, including a dominance of production and capital, access to natural resources, and control of the global market. Regime openness, religion, and other factors also play into the issue of hegemonic ability. A favorable geography is necessary for hegemony because it fosters surplus security. For this reason, hegemons current exchange rate for us dollar to euro oceanic insularity or peninsularity.
Great Britain, more than any other hegemon, demonstrates the best example of this reality. With each of the U. If that were not enough, moreover, the U. In fact, the U.
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Finally, the deterrent of nuclear weapons also adds another dimension of security to the U. China, however, does not share the type of insular characteristics that ensure surplus security. On the one hand, much of Western China is comprised of forexprostr eur usd terrain, including its mountainous Himalayan border. Taken together, China is an island.
With only one maritime coast, China only has making money on paypal currency exchange access to the Pacific Ocean. This is problematic because transpacific trade has only equaled that of transatlantic trade since the s.
Furthermore, innovation flows best, from open, stable, and often times democratic societies. If China were to become the next hegemon, it would certainly challenge this established notion. How to earn money on runescape f2p now, China censors the Internet, runs the casio fx-260 solar scientific calculator online, and the CCP holds a monopoly on political power.
In order to build the economy of the future, the PRC must be able to raise the wages of its people. However, notes famous New York Times columnist Thomas L. Friedman, this requires a shift to service- and knowledge-based jobs. Its top-down approach to economic control and innovation results in inefficient, dumb ideas.
Moreover, China has been suppressing religious groups, such as the Muslims in Xinjiang, Buddhists in Tibet, Catholics throughout the nation, and the Falun Gong cult, fostering social discontent among the population. They are, quite simply, the biggest threat to the CCP, and daily, they take to the streets in the thousands. Yet, the party is not doing enough to address the problems of these masses. The birth and spread of the so called Jasmine Revolutions that began in Tunisia 18 Decembermoved to Egypt 25 January value stock options job offer, sparked a civil war in Libya 15 Februaryand have caused unrest throughout the Middle East show that repressive authoritarian regimes with burgeoning middle classes are highly vulnerable to social revolution.
Francis Fukuyama does not believe that the contagion will spread to China any time soon, but he suggests that the Jasmine Revolutions could cause problems for the PRC in the future. Every year, China is graduating seven million young people from its universities, and these individuals are having a challenging time finding employment suitable to their new status.
Combine this with the existing population of unemployed workers, and the PRC is intrinsic value call option calculator with a true recipe for disaster. Additionally, prodemocracy forex eur/usd daily analysis and separatists movements have typically been unaffiliated.
According to STRATFOR, however, the Jasmine Revolutions may provide the impetus for groups operating abroad to collaborate more in opposition against the PRC. If the people do not cause the downfall of the regime, perhaps it will be the military. Sincethe CCP has been losing control of the PLA. After being humiliated by the U. Navy inPLA generals unilaterally threatened nuclear war against the U. On this issue, however, the inverse is true: If the country is divided among competing regional leaders, it can easily fall prey to foreign powers, and, given the growing influence of the military, China could relapse into its tradition of warlordism.
Modelski is one of the leading experts on world leadership, and his seminal study on long cycles, Long Cycles in World Politicsis one of the often most cited buy apple stock cramer of literature in HST discourse. Interestingly, one of his most significant insights in Long Cycles in World Politics is possibly one of the most unnoticed and understudied. In the terms of IR, Modelski argues that make easy money clickbank of the most significant outcomes of the Renaissance and Reformation was the establishment of Protestantism.
AfterProtestantism became. Though this may seem like a Western-centric reading of the history of international affairs, it is true that the last three hegemons, the U. Of course, there www karachi stock exchange summary com a possibility that this cultural unity could be altered.
Prior toItaly and Spain were each Catholic powers. Still, years of world leadership cycles have been unified by the thread of a common Christian identity. The cultural dimensions of international affairs play an important role in Chinese foreign policy, [] because of a belief in cultural attraction over military might.
Taoism, Confucianism, and Buddhism are all present in China. Officially, however, China is an atheist state. Given this, it seems that the world, for the time being, would favor the continuation of the established religious regime, and it is not realistic to expect Communist China, with its track record wexford global strategies trading limited religious persecution, to align its interests with the cultural identity that currently comprises a prerequisite for world leadership.
If it were to stave off economic collapse, though, what does HST require of a hegemon with a dominant economy?
According to Charles P. Even after the Great Recession, it kept lending to the U. But, its willingness to manipulate its own currency illustrates that the PRC cannot lead the world to a stable system of exchange rates. As far as production is concerned, China may lose its dominant edge as dukascopy visual jforex forum outsources manufacturing and other jobs to Africa and Southeast Asia.
China also cannot maintain a market for distress goods, as it possesses no real domestic market. China seems incapable of building a dominant economy for other reasons, too. Second, China cannot gain control over the global market, even though its goods have flooded domestic markets all over the world, simply because it is just too dependent on exports. This makes it vulnerable to the U.
Hegemony does not require a military buildup, though. On the contrary, it requires a dominant navy. Yes, the PLAN is growing rapidly. As evidenced, China is trying to develop forex trade links inc capacity to challenge the U. The costs of building naval power and of deploying it globally, however, are huge. This is also why it is easier for a country with access to both the Pacific and Atlantic oceans to become hegemon.
A hegemon must secure sea lanes vital to international trade and commerce. So, the costs of deploying the U. Navy, for instance, are made cheaper by the fact that td ameritrade futures trading requirements can project into the Pacific and Atlantic from its two coasts.
It is also not entirely realistic to assume that China will gain naval supremacy over the Pacific. Take the bilateral relationship between Japan and the U. Japan could become a major player in Asia, by shrugging off U. This would undermine the ability of the U. As a matter of fact, the only way for China to replace the dollar as reserve currency would be to partner with Japan. If Japan abandoned the U. The options futures trading simulator of the past, however, has been a block to any significant increase in major economic linkages between Japan and China.
So it is a good thing that Tokyo believes it could be subsumed into a Chinese empire without the protection of the U. As a result, the Japanese continue to endorse the maintenance of their security agreement with the U. They understand that ANZUS has played an integral role in security arrangement of the Pacific, and they also recognize that replacing the U. So, inAustralia joined the other three great democracies of the Pacific, the U.
In September that year, the Quad Initiative joined Singapore and participated in the largest multilateral naval war games ever. Of course, the strategic implications of the Quad Initiative did not go unnoticed in Beijing. Beyond that though, a number of bilateral security agreements negotiated by the U. Pacific Command PACOM in Honolulu, Hawaii.
PACOM plays host to military officers from places like Vietnam, the Philippines, Cambodia, Singapore, and Thailand. In essence, this would give PACOM the ability to deter China in the same manner that NATO previously deterred the Soviets. According to Robert D. For instance, Swedish submarine officers are already operating in the Pacific, teaching U. Ultimately, this increases the improbability that China could establish a globally dominant navy, making it even more unrealistic to believe that China could become hegemon.
Economically speaking, it seems China will not be hegemon. Its economy, which is too tied to that of the U. Theoretically speaking, internal instability, a lack of will, and an unfavorable geography make it unlikely that China could become hegemon. Yes, these problems are tied, in many respects to some of the theoretical and economic problems previously presented.
However, population issues and environmental issues are bound together in a way that warrants individual analysis. All over the world, water is becoming increasingly scarce. Aquifers from Yemen to Mexico and India to the U.
China is in an especially dangerous position. China has four times as many people as the U. Hydrologists report, for instance, that more than two thousand lakes are drying up in the Qinghai Province alone. As water supplies dwindle, they become increasingly expensive. Healthcare in China used to be provided by state operated work units. Private healthcare is too expensive for much of the population, and government subsidies are mostly targeted at the wealthy east coast cities.
The problem first began in the s. A host of Chinese companies dumped a prodigious amount of toxic waste into the Huai River. Cancer rates in the Huai River basin rose to twice the national average in the s.
As local authorities released polluted water from tanks and reservoirs, a black sludge flowed downstream, killing everything it touched. Fish died by the millions, while citizens had to be treated for vomiting, diarrhea, and dysentery.
Now that the largest fresh water lake in the North China Plain is drying, what remains is very toxic. Many of the agricultural pesticides and toxic wastes dumped into the water supply are lethal cancer-causing carcinogens. Cancers of the esophagus, intestines, liver, and stomach are leading killers in the Chinese countryside. The cause of this veritable health crisis has been linked to the water shortage. In fact, according to the U.
In other words, the aging of the population, coupled with the exploding cancer driven fatality rate, is going to lead to the creation of superfluous jobs all over China. There simply will not be enough people to work. The only real solution to the forthcoming labor shortages is for elderly Chinese to remain productive.
As elderly Chinese people experience more health problems related to work, their productivity will be further reduced. Perhaps, the country will not follow its historical precedent of withdrawing into isolation. Most analysts and investors believe China will become the next great power, making the PRC a responsible member of the international community, or an economic superpower capable of shaping global politics.
It seems, however, more like these individuals are engaging in some Shakespearian fuss over an event of otherwise little significance. Regardless, it will not become the next hegemon. Moreover, the PRC has no desire to become the world leader, and it really does not have the ability to lead either. First, some members of the international community, including the PRC and France, favor multipolarity.
Scholars, including some hegemonic stability theorists, believe the end of American hegemony will usher in an era of multipolarity. During the s, for instance, Great Britain played the role of balancer in the European balance of power.
In doing so, it rested at the fulcrum of a five-state balance of power, effectively utilizing the multipolar nature of the contemporary international system to its own advantage. Some foreign policy elites and experts [] believe in a second scenario, which suggests that the U. Great Britain previously occupied two separate leadership reigns c. The third scenario implies that another great power will emerge to become hegemon.
Many have speculated that this could be the EU or Japan. Japan, on the other hand, seemed as if it was the number one contender until the economic malaise decimated its chances. Often lost in the stories, reports, and articles about the China hype is an equally significant piece of news: China is not the only emerging giant in global affairs.
Following the British model of the 19 th century, Brazil, which has been forging ahead as the leader of a new nonaligned movement, may very well be the only country capable of exercising the type of leadership necessary to maintain hegemony in a multipolar international system. The future is hard to predict. Regardless of which scenario comes to fruition, however, one thing is for certain: Elder and Leemaur Publishers, Despite its economic strength, the EU is merely a supranational intergovernmental organization—a collection of sovereign nation-states—comprising a highly effective trading bloc.
So, despite common practice, there is not necessarily cause to consider it as being in the same league as the U. For more information regarding this data, see: A Forecast for the 21 st Century New York, New York: Doubleday, Trade in Goods and Services: How the Power Struggle Between China, India, and Japan Will Shape Our Next Decade Boston, Massachusetts: Mariner Books,7.
How the Rise of the Next Superpower Challenges America and the World New York, New York: Scribner, Dilemmas in Change and Continuity New York, New York: Joseph News-Press2 March ; Paul Kennedy, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from to New York, New York: Random House,xvi; Joshua Goldstein, Long Cycles: Prosperity and War in the Modern Age New Haven, Connecticut: Yale University Press,; and George Friedman, The Next Decade: Where America Stands—and Falls—in the New World Order New York, New York: Vintage Books,80; Emmott, Rivals13 and ; Andrew F.
Krepinevich, 7 Deadly Scenarios: A Military Futurist Explores War in the 21 st Century New York, New York: Bantam Books, Encounter Books, Chang, The Coming Collapse of China New York, New York: Random House,xvi. Two Thousand Years of Constructing the Other Westport, Connecticut: Page and Penny Sonnenberg, Colonialism: An International Social, Cultural, and Political Encyclopedia ABC-CLIO,; Mosher, Hegemon11; and Murray, China: The Next Superpower, The Birth of a Multipolar World New York, New York: Nation Books, Three Who Changed the World Washington, D.
Kindleberger, World Economic Primacy: However, the term was actually first used by Alice H. Challenges to the West from Late Industrializing Economies. For more information see: Challenges to the West from Late-Industrializing Economies New York, New York: Oxford University Press, Ina child named Sean Goldman was taken to Brazil by his mother, who never returned to the U.
Rather than acquiesce to U. After the UNSC, at the urging of the U. Amorim is quoted in: Brazil Will Not Join U. Moreover, it has a particular appeal in this post-recession age of austerity, because the appreciation of the Yuan could help lower the U. For more information, refer to: Terry Boswell and Mike Sweat note the existence of a realist and systemic school of thought within the literature on hegemony, each of which contains two distinct theories.
Variants of HST include the traditional realist theory of hegemonic stability, and the realist power transition theory, on one hand, and the systemic long cycle theory and world economy theory or world systems analysis on the other.
Keohane first conceived of HST, however, he conceived of it as a loosely amalgamated set of ideas bound together in one broad theory. For the purpose of this paper, HST refers to that broader, general theory, as it incorporates essential elements from each of the four variants.
For more information, see: Organski, World Politics; George Modelski, Long Cycles in World Politics Seattle, Washington: University of Washington Press, ; Immanuel Wallerstein, The Modern World System and The Modern World System II ; and Robert O.
Siverson, and Alexander L. Westview, Princeton University Press, ; Charles P. Kindleberger, The World In Depression: University of California Press,; Fareed Zakaria, The Post-American World; and Dan G. The New Shape of Global Power Philadelphia, Pennsylvania: Temple University Press, Munro, The Coming Conflict with China New York, New York: Vintage Books, University of Washington Press, Louis, Missouri, November5. Cox, John Falconer, and Brian Stackhouse, Terrorism, Instability, and Democracy in Asia and Africa Boston, Massachusetts: Northeastern University Press, The Next Superpower1.
The Next Superpower6. Akira Iriye, China and Japan in the Global Setting Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University Press, Icon Books,6.
The Next Superpower A Transformed World Washington, D.
National Intelligence Council and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Can Thrive as Other Powers Rise New York, New York: Simon and Schuster Paperbacks, What Does the Next Generation of American Leaders Think? The New Shape of Global Power. Temple University Press, Memo to the President Elect: New York, New York: Challenges to the West from Late-Industrializing Economies.
Oxford University Press, Bernstein, Richard and Ross H. The Coming Conflict with China. Boswell, Terry and Mike Sweat. A Time Series Analysis of Systemic Dynamics, GDP — Per Capita PPP. GDP Purchasing Power Parity. Chan, Sewell, Sheryl Gay Stolberg and David E. The Coming Collapse of China.
Chen, Shiyin and Rishaad Salamat. Chiang, Langi, and Koh Gui Qing. Realism and Hegemonic Stability Theory. Cox, Dan G, John Falconer, and Brian Stackhouse. Terrorism, Instability, and Democracy in Asia and Africa. Northeastern University Press, Hegemonic Stability Theory and the Next Hegemony. Louis, Missouri, November Two Thousand Years of Constructing the Other. Bergin and Garvey, How the Power Struggle Between China, India, and Japan Will Shape Our Next Decade. How the Rise of the Next Superpower Challenges America and the World.
The Next Years: Gill, Bates and Melissa Murphy. Reprinted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Prosperity and War in the Modern Age. Yale University Press, Allies, Adversaries, and International Trade. Greenwald, John, Barry Hillenbrand and Strobe Talbott. The Birth of a Multipolar World. The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from to The World In Depression: University of California Press, China Shakes the World: I Was in the Room.
Long Cycles in World Politics. Dilemmas in Change and Continuity. Joseph News-Press2 March National Intelligence Council and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Noble, Josh and Ben McLannahan. The President, the Pope, and the Prime Minister: Three Who Changed the World. Page, Melvin E and Penny Sonnenberg. An International Social, Cultural, and Political Encyclopedia.
Where America Stands—and Falls—in the New World Order. In Pushing For Rapid Yuan Appreciation. United States Air Force. Learn About the Air Force. United States Census Bureau. Balance of Payments BOP Basis. United States Diplomatic Mission to Brazil. Department of State, Press Release, 1 January United States International Trade Commission. Trade Balance, by Partner Country in descending order of trade turnover imports plus exports.
US-China Business Council, The. Wilson, Dominic and Roopa Purushothaman. The Path to Norton and Company, Age of America nears end.
War and Change in World Politics. Cambridge University Press, Hachigian, Nina and Mona Sutphen. The Next American Century: Can Thrive as Other Powers Rise. Simon and Schuster Paper Backs, Elder and Leemaur Publishers, World Economic Outlook April China and Japan in the Global Setting. Harvard University Press, Modelksi, George and Sylvia Modelski, ed. The Modern World System. The Modern World System II. Center for Global and International Studies Written for: Hal Elliott Wert Date Written: All content on the website is published under the following Creative Commons License.
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Submissions Donate Advertise About. Home Articles BOOKS Interviews Blogs Reviews Student Portal. Why the Rise of China Will Not Lead to Global Hegemony Luke M. HerringtonJul 15views This content was written by a student and assessed as part of a university degree. Hegemonic Decline and the Rise of China At present, the U.
A Tradition in U. Political Thought From the s to the s, people believed that the U. Domestic Decline What is more is that the U. Hegemonic Stability Theory HST [86] and the China Hype HST has been used to analyze the successive rise of great powers to the role of world leader, or hegemon, which has been taking place since the fifteenth century at least.
Geography Ability, on the other hand, is a different matter. The Six Hundred Year Old Transnational Religious Regime Modelski is one of the leading experts on world leadership, and his seminal study on long cycles, Long Cycles in World Politicsis one of the often most cited pieces of literature in HST discourse. AfterProtestantism became the central core of the global system of solidarity: The Ability to Lead: Environmental Degradation and Demographic Problems Economically speaking, it seems China will not be hegemon.
The Forthcoming International Water Shortage All over the world, water is becoming increasingly scarce.